The National Treasury, informed by its discussion document, “Confronting youth unemployment – policy options for South Africa”, published in February 2011, has set aside R5-billion to finance the youth wage subsidy.
This subsidy aims to close an alleged gap that exists between the real wages of young people and their productivity.
In the Sunday Independent (June 17 2012), I showed that actually, young people in South Africa are on average nominally paid R1053 less than their productivity on a monthly basis, and in real terms this amounts to R726.
The National Treasury (and the DA) further argues that international evidence supports their proposed youth wage subsidy.
Sapa quotes Ms Lindiwe Mazibuko of the DA as saying on June 12 this year that Cosatu is spreading lies about the youth wage subsidy.
Ms Mazibuko is further quoted as saying: “Plenty of research has been commissioned to test the validity of the youth wage subsidy all over the world … It shows that young people will get absorbed in the workplace. There is no substitution and no exploitation.”
She is also reported to have referred to Singapore and the UK as examples where the youth wage subsidy has been successful.
Even the IFP is reported to have nailed its colours to the mast in support of the subsidy. Indeed, the Treasury document dedicates quite some time to demonstrating that the youth wage subsidy works internationally.
A distorted view
The National Treasury document deliberately exaggerates what the international literature says about youth wage subsidies in favour of its proposal.
This unwarranted and exaggerated presentation leads to a distorted view of what is going on internationally.
In order to demonstrate these distortions, I will refer to the same papers that National Treasury uses and show that these papers lean more towards a Cosatu position than the Treasury’s (and the DA’s) position.
The Treasury document refers to 13 countries.
The DA has now added Singapore to the list, although we searched the DA website and could not find the literature on which the claims about Singapore are based.
Due to space limitations, I will deal with the UK, US, Germany, Turkey, Colombia and Argentina. Evidence for the other countries is broadly similar.
In relation to the US, the Treasury document relies on a 1996 paper by Katz ), which concludes that the US employment subsidy “has no impact on the earnings or employment prospects of out-of-school disadvantaged youth … like other non-intensive strategies that have been evaluated, it does not appear very effective for out-of-school youth from poor families”.
These observations clearly do not support the National Treasury and the DA.
Even though the youth wage subsidies in the US may have had “modestly positive employment results”, as Katz also reports, such results have been statistically insignificant and they have been ineffective for out-of-school youth who, in South Africa, make up than 95% of unemployed youth.
In the case of the UK, a 2003 paper by Van Reenen shows that the “New Deal” for young people consists of a range of options young people have to pursue their development.
The youth wage subsidy option is, therefore, one of a number of options, and is the least favoured by young people because of its potential career-limiting effect.
Its impact on employment is also contaminated by the effects of other interventions, such as job-search assistance to young people.
The British Department of Business, Innovation and Skills is opposed to youth wage subsidies.
Create distortions
In 2009 the department submitted: “Our conclusion is that this is not a feasible, cost-effective or sustainable option for us.
We also know, based on our experiences of the 1970s, that these schemes can create distortions and prevent companies taking necessary action to restructure or retrain to ensure their survival and success in the future, leading to failure and redundancies when the subsidy is removed.”
So the British government also does not support the position of the National Treasury and the DA.
Further evidence also reveals that young people in the UK, and in fact everywhere, prefer the option of raising their education levels, rather than being thrust into the labour market without skills and basic cognitive abilities.
In relation to Germany, the hiring subsidies to which the Treasury document refers are targeted at workers aged 50 and above.
Just how this can be thought to provide evidence that the youth wage subsidy works remains a mystery.
A 2007 paper by Jaenichen and Stephan states: “Our results show that wage subsidies may increase the employment prospects of supported workers to a considerable amount”, that is, the supported grandfathers and grandmothers.
But these authors then note that “a comparison between groups of unemployed persons taking subsidised employment with matched control groups of individuals moving directly into unsubsidised employment indicates that differences in the employment prospects are rather small after three years.”
The claim that the subsidy has made a huge impact is, therefore, not supported.
Other literature, such as work by Schünemann and others published in 2007, finds that for Germany, “the results suggest no significant effect of the subsidy on exit rates out of unemployment or employment stability. Employment rates up to three years after eligibility show no significant improvement”.
So, the German experience does not support the National Treasury and the DA.
Costly way to increase employment
A 2009 paper by Betcherman and Daysal shows that the German subsidies were not for young people.
Nevertheless, it reports: “The evidence suggests that the dominant effect of subsidies was to increase social security registration of firms and workers rather than boosting total employment and economic activity … the gains in employment and number of firms correspond to a surge in formalisation, rather than to real gains in economic activity … our results also suggest that implementing the subsidies can be a costly way to increase employment … the government ended up paying for nearly the full cost of employment created.”
This clearly does not support the use of subsidies for job-creation.
The Treasury document smooths over this damning evidence by saying that “formalisation as a result of the subsidy would be a positive effect and consistent with government’s aims to increase formalisation in the economy”.
But why do we need to have a youth wage subsidy to formalise business enterprise? Is the youth subsidy not meant to increase the employment prospects of young people, rather than formalising enterprises?
In Colombia the Treasury relies on a paper by the Ministry of Social Protection published in 2004, which we could not find.
But research by Attanasio and others, published in 2009, analyses Colombia’s vocational training programme, called “Youth in Action”.
The authors find that: “Training offers increase the probability of having a formal sector job by 0.053.
The results also show that the offer of training increases the probability of having a written contract by 0.066.”
In other words, those who are not part of the programme have a 6.6 percent smaller chance of getting a written employment contract.
This is a very small improvement, especially because the “Youth in Action” programme “consisted of three months of classroom training and three months of on-the-job training” in a range of skills that South African unemployed youth can only dream about.
The Colombian programme is vastly different from the “cold turkey” approach of National Treasury’s and the DA’s youth wage subsidy, and still yielded very modest results.
There seems to be evidence of destructive churning in the Colombian programme, where employers fire young people repeatedly – in other words, people change jobs more frequently and there is little job-retention once the subsidy is removed.
But the Treasury document presents an overly optimistic picture about the youth wage subsidy in two towns of Argentina.
It must be noted that in Argentina, because employers had to register workers to claim the subsidy while being reluctant to formalise their businesses, they did not hire subsidised workers.
The contrasting evidence between Argentina and Turkey shows that there is not even conclusive evidence that employment subsidies increase formalisation of business enterprises.
Myths
Reference that international evidence supports the youth wage subsidy is one of the biggest myths propagated by subsidy pushers.
The international literature on which the National Treasury and the DA rely to support their position on the youth wage subsidy tends to point in the opposite direction.
Either the National Treasury authors have not fully understood the papers they were using, or they were deliberately selective in their reading of the literature.
As for the DA, it is most probably the case that they simply relied on the “goodness” of Treasury researchers to base a national political campaign without checking the evidence.
We should perhaps forgive the old man Mangosuthu Buthelezi, who just wants anything that promises jobs even if there is no evidence that it does so.
While Ms Mazibuko confidently points us to international evidence, which is full of statistics, she states in her 2012 June 16 message to South African youth: “This is not the time for cold statistics, it is a time for empathy and understanding”.
As soon as she says this, she jumps straight into “cold statistics”, saying that “half of all South Africans below the age of 25 are unemployed.
That means that one in two young people you pass in the street, see at church or the mosque, travel within a taxi, or sit next to at the clinic, does not have a job”.
This, however, does not illustrate anything. She must read the socio-economic report presented at the fifth central committee of Cosatu in 2011 and the facts contained in Cosatu’s “Growth path towards full employment” to get a vivid picture of what she is saying.
Once people reject statistics only to use them when they please the room for scientific engagement narrows significantly and scope for myths rises dramatically.
•Christopher Malikane is a policy advisor to Cosatu.
Source
Numsa News